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Arab League Takes on Lebanon Crisis

Could a peaceful and stable future for Lebanon be hammered out in the conference rooms of Doha's Sheraton? Coming off a Thursday deal brokered by the Arab League, both Fuad Saniora's government and the Hezbollah opposition agreed to "remove the roadblocks that have paralysed air traffic and shut major highways, and ... stop using language that incited violence." As quoted by The Australian, Hezbollah's second-in-command, Naim Qassem, said, "We want a political settlement that will lead in the end to there being no victor and no vanquished."

Things now have moved directly into the Qatar talks. More:

    "Al Jazeera's Rula Amin reported that there was a lot of hope that the talks would yield positive results, though it would be difficult to make the different factions agree.

    'People have a lot of hope that it will work. However, they know that the issues are real. The political factions that are here have different interests, different concerns and have different visions for Lebanon. So it is not an easy job to bring them all together and to get them agree in a short time as well,' Amin said.

    'Only a week ago, these leaders were talking to each other through the guns and there were bloody clashes between their supporters on the streets. However, there seems to be a will, not only among the Lebanese factions but also from the regional Arab countries and Iran, that this crisis has to be contained and an end to the violence has to be put.'

    ...Parliament in Beirut is scheduled to convene on June 10 for its 20th attempt to elect a president."

Friday May 16, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

China's Quake Death Toll Could Reach 50,000

As this photo gallery of the devastation shows, some key factors are contributing to the high death toll and hampering the recovery efforts:

  • The sheer magnitude of the damage: Many areas in Sichuan Province, home of the 7.9 quake's epicenter, are completely leveled.

  • Restricted access to areas in need: Roads are not only blocked, but in some cases buckled and tore apart, making routes into hard-hit areas impassable.

  • Damage to the dams: The Chinese government has had to divert troops away from rescue/recovery efforts to try to patch up cracks. If these dams burst, flooding would immensely magnify the suffering already being felt in western China.

State media is saying that officials have now reached all affected areas, and hence come the predictions that the official death toll could likely double to 50,000.

Like its ally Myanmar, China refused the help of foreign-aid workers. But perhaps learning a lesson from the cyclone disaster and realizing the devastation was too much for them to handle, China on Thursday let in a rescue team from its foe, Japan.

Meanwhile, the Times of London has a round-up of Chinese bloggers' complaints that quake warning signs -- from restless animals to the sudden massive drop in water level in a large pond in Hubei province -- were reported to authorities but brushed off.

(Photo by China Photos/Getty Images)

Thursday May 15, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Internal Fighting Threatens anti-Musharraf Coalition

And if he'd been waiting to exhale, on-the-ropes President Pervez Musharraf can breathe a little easier for the time being.

Why? The great opposition coalition aiming to oust him from power -- the Pakistan People's Party headed by Benazir Bhutto widower, Asif Ali Zardari, and the Pakistan Muslim League-N, headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif -- is falling apart over disagreement on the reinstatement of about 60 judges dismissed last November by Musharraf. Why are they so important? Because the judges -- including fired Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry -- could rule unfavorably to the president on the legality of Musharraf's re-election.

Nine PML-N ministers resigned from the goverment today, the day after Sharif said the judges would be reinstated. More from the wires:

    "The ministers submitted their resignations to Yousuf Raza Gilani, the incumbent prime minister, on Tuesday.

    However, Gilani has reportedly refused to accept the resignations.

    Sharif said on Monday that the PML-N was 'bound by this date,' referring to a deadline he set with his main coalition partner, the party of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, for judges sacked by Pervez Musharraf, the president, to be reinstated.

    However, he said his party would not take any decision that would strengthen the 'dictatorship,' referring to Musharraf.

    The PML-N has pledged to continue supporting the six-week-old coalition from outside the government, the prime minister's office said."

According to Pakistan's Daily Times, Gilani was waiting to address the resignations until Zardari got back in the country.

The disagreement between the PPP and PML-N is all a matter of tactics: Sharif wants confrontation with Musharraf now, while Zardari wants to wait.

But there also seems to be some suspicion, if you read the story in Pakistan's largest English-language daily paper, Dawn, about final intentions within the coalition:

    "However, (Sharif) said: 'We will not become part of any conspiracy to strengthen dictatorship and not become a tool in the hands of any person.' He said the party had decided not to sit in the opposition for the time being and to continue to support the government on an issue-to-issue basis."

So there seems to be some serious distrust about whether Zardari's party actually intends to oust Musharraf.

Tuesday May 13, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Putin Playing With a Full Deck

First, the anointed one, Dmitry Medvedev, moved into his appointed spot as president of Russia. Before you could say "borscht," the man who got the technocrat into the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, assumed his promised role as prime minister. Now, Medvedev's cabinet looks oddly familiar -- it's stacked with Putin's favorites.

Al-Jazeera noticed that some other things haven't changed since the nominal power switcheroo this month:

    "On Monday, Russian television footage showed the meeting where the country's leaders proclaimed a new cabinet line-up. Vladimir Putin, the incoming prime minister, was shown seated on the same side of a table that he always occupied as president, while Dmitry Medvedev, technically his new boss, occupied the side traditionally kept for subordinates.

    While the cabinet contains few surprises, it certainly illustrates Putin's continued hold on power.

    Key ministers who have performed well as close Putin loyalists retain their posts: Sergey Lavrov, the most visible face of Russia's foreign policy; Alexei Kudrin, who keeps hold of finance; and Anatoly Serdyukov, the defence minister.

    Viktor Zubkov, a former prime minister and a longtime friend of Putin, remains as deputy prime minister and will likely take up the post of chairman of Gazprom next month.

    These appointments illustrate Putin's influence in key areas. Only Sergei Ivanov takes a hit. The hawkish former first deputy prime minister becomes merely a deputy prime minister, a sign perhaps of a more moderate cabinet (or it could be something else entirely).

    Also, Putin has brought key behind-the-scenes figures across from the Kremlin and into the government. The most significant, Igor Sechin, was deputy chief of staff and heads oil giant Rosneft. He is said to be a hardliner and head of the Kremlin old guard, or siloviki, a shadowy but very powerful group often believed to be the real power behind the throne."

Keep an eye on Russia, folks. Press freedom has already faded in the country, a canary in the coal mine that shows the subsequent diminishing democracy. Russia's neighbors have more reason to be nervous about this absolute power, as well.

(Photo: Russian Presidential Press and Information Office)

Tuesday May 13, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Thousands Dead in 7.8 Earthquake in China

Felt as far away as Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan, the massive temblor struck Sichuan province at 2:28 p.m. -- that's just east of Tibet, a region that has already seen misery lately as ethnic Tibetans joining in anti-government protests came under the People Republic's crackdown. One of the casualties was a school that collapsed, trapping about 900 students under rubble, reports the Associated Press:

    "The official Xinhua News Agency said 8,533 people died in Sichuan alone and dozens of other deaths were reported in surrounding areas.

    Xinhua said 80 percent of the buildings had collapsed in Sichuan province's Beichuan county after the quake, raising fears the overall death toll could increase sharply.

    State media said a chemical plant in Shifang city had cratered, burying hundreds of people and spilling more than 80 tons of toxic liquid ammonia from the site."

The New York Times has a photo gallery of the damage.

As always when the earth lets loose, check out the U.S. Geological Survery quake tracking site. They're showing a magnitude of 7.9, slightly higher than press reports, but in the initial hours after a quake either the press or USGS numbers might be revised due to further study of the event.

UPDATE: The death toll is now being reported at around 10,000, and is expected to climb.

(Map: USGS)

Monday May 12, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

First U.S. Aid Shipment Lands in Myanmar

It's only been nine days since Category 4 Cyclone Nargis slammed into Burmese villages. It's not like the world has been dragging its heels in coming to the people's aid. Rather, the junta that rules Myanmar has been paranoid about keeping the philanthropists off their soil, wanting donations dropped off like the bin outside Goodwill so they can take it from there. Where the aid will really go, nobody knows.

Yet after "prolonged negotiations" with the junta -- as the death toll could top 100,000 and one to two million residents remain severely affected by the storm -- American aid was finally allowed to land, its carrier then promptly ushered back into the sky. This just moving from the Associated Press:

    "The unarmed military C-130 cargo plane, packed with supplies, flew out of the Thai air force base of Utapao and landed in Yangon. Two more air shipments are scheduled to land Tuesday.

    After the plane's arrival, the supplies were transferred to Myanmar army trucks.

    ...In the hardest hit Irrawaddy delta, people were surviving in miserable conditions — hundreds crowded into monasteries, where they slept on the floor. Others camped outside, drinking water contaminated by human feces, dead bodies and animal carcasses.

    Heavy rains were forecast this week, which would further hinder aid delivery.

    'So far we have enough water by collecting rain. But we do not have food anymore,' said U Patanyale, the abbot of a monastery in Pyapon town in the delta."

Outbreaks of diarrhea are being reported, and potential outbreaks of illnesses such as cholera, malaria, or dengue, according to aid experts, could be prevented if experts would just be allowed in the country to assess shelter and sanitation needs and coordinate relief efforts.

As it is, bloated bodies choke waterways and hang twisted in trees, with no one to pick them up as the survivors are shouldered with the herculean task of just finding the basics needed to survive. From AP:

    "'The first few we saw, we were all very shocked,' said U Pinyatale, a monk from the area who has prayed for the dead. 'After a while, there were just too many.'

    More than 50 bodies can be spotted in just three hours on the river. Many have turned white as they float entwined in mangrove trees, where they remain lodged. The smell of dead fish permeates the humid air as dozens of small boats ferrying roofing supplies and rice navigate around the corpses, but no one seems to notice.

    ...The monk, Pinyatale, said some people simply want the bodies to be sucked out to sea because they believe if someone touches them, that person will be cursed with bad luck and haunted by the unsettled spirit."

The story notes that in Indonesia after the 2005 Boxing Day tsunami, bodies were quickly buried in accordance with Islamic law, and bodies were collected in refrigerated storage in Thailand for later identification. But they also had resources and manpower beyond what the junta is allowing to cross Myanmar's borders.

And speaking of those allowed in by the regime, you'll notice that most wire stories and photos are coming across sans byline and without photo credits. No use risking being caught and tossed out by the junta simply for trying to spread the truth to the rest of the world.

STORM COVERAGE: Myanmar Ignores Storm Victims, Proceeds With Vote

(Satellite image of Cyclone Nargis: NOAA)
Monday May 12, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Debts Drive India's Farmers to Suicide

The amounts of money owed by the thousands of farmers taking their own lives would seem really managable to most of us, recession or not. But the crop-to-crop woes leave many of India's growers feeling left behind as the country embraces globalization.

The Associated Press examines this troubling trend in the second-most populated country on Earth today:

    "On the last night of his life, the farmer walked into his dusty fields, choked down pesticide and waited to die.

    He owed more than $1,000 to banks and moneylenders and he had told his wife that if the cotton harvest was bad this year, he would kill himself.

    Pandurang Chindu Surpam left the near-barren fields he worked with his sons to share a last meal with his family. Hours later, he died. He was 45.

    ...Farmers like Surpam killed themselves at a rate of 48 a day between 2002 and 2006 -- more than 17,500 a year, according to experts who have analyzed government statistics. At least 160,000 farmers have committed suicide since 1997, said K. Nagaraj of the Madras Institute of Development Studies.

    The epidemic dates to the 1990s, and is generally attributed to a toxic blend of slashed subsidies, tougher global competition, drought, predatory moneylenders and expensive genetically modified seeds.

    'It's one of the largest public health disasters to hit India since independence,' said professor Charles Nuckols of Brigham Young University, an anthropologist who has studied Indian village life for decades.

    In northern India, authorities have gone so far as to ban a type of cheap hair dye because it was being drunk to induce death by kidney failure.

    But it is India's cotton belt, a land of searing temperatures and backbreaking work, that has been hit hardest by the suicides. ..."

(Map: U.S. State Department)
Sunday May 11, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Serbia's Pro-West President Beats Ultranationalists

Chalk one up for Boris Tadic -- his pro-European Democratic Party has eked out a victory in parliamentary elections over the Radical Party. (The ultranationalists share the views of nationalists such as conservative Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica in favoring closer ties with Russia over the goal of European Union membership.)

More from the Associated Press:

    "Independent monitors said Tadic's coalition had about 38 percent of the vote with about 50 percent of the vote counted nationwide. They said the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party was running a distant second with 28 percent.

    Tadic described Sunday's win as 'convincing' and said it shows that a majority of Serbia's citizens want to join the European Union. But Tadic also said his government would never recognize Kosovo's statehood.

    The ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party clung to a slim lead heading into parliamentary elections, closely trailed by President Boris Tadic's pro-Western coalition."

Al-Jazeera looks at how the parlimentary vote will translate into real-world coalition blocs:

    "Omar Khalifa, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Belgrade, said that despite their victory claim, the pro-EU parties are in some difficulty.

    Tadic's party can only achieve 119 seats - or with the minority parties 122 at best - which is not enough to take the required 126 seat majority in parliament.

    By contrast, the DSS, with the Radical party and the Socialist party, can realistically combine to produce 127 seats, giving them enough for a majority governing coalition."

So it's decidedly a mixed bag for Boris.

Serbia also extended its elections to newly independent Kosovo, over the objections of the United Nations and ethnic Albanians who accuse Belgrade of trying to stir separatist feelings within Kosovo's two main communities.

Sunday May 11, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Myanmar Ignores Storm Victims, Proceeds With Vote

As about a million Burmese have no roof over their heads, and up to 100,000 have perished in Cyclone Nargis, the junta in Myanmar is trying to push Burmese to the polls today to vote on a constitutional referendum. The lack of response to the victims -- like hampering international aid efforts -- is staggering, as is the government's seizure of aid shipments Friday:

    "Myanmar's junta seized two planeloads of UN aid shipments meant for a multitude of hungry survivors of last week's devastating cyclone, prompting the world body to suspend further help, UN officials said Friday.

    'All of the food aid and equipment that we managed to get in has been confiscated,' said Paul Risley, a spokesman for the UN's World Food Program in Bangkok.

    The seized aid, including 38 tons of high-energy biscuits, arrived on two flights from Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 'It is being held by the government,' he said."

But referendums are much easier for the government to fix win when your opposition is occupied with other things -- for example, Buddhist monks who have led anti-junta demonstrations are now sheltering storm victims, cleaning up debris, and generally doing everything the government won't do.

From Al-Jazeera:

    "The referendum got under way on Saturday in much of the country, though in the areas hardest hit by Cyclone Nargis the vote was postponed for two weeks.

    Some 27 million of Myanmar's 57 million people are eligible to vote, although it was unclear how many would vote on Saturday and how many will vote on May 24 instead.

    But the cyclone has overshadowed the vote, which even before the disaster many saw as being skewed in the military's favour.

    ...State-run TV news repeated broadcasts urging people to vote, making no mention of the tens of thousands killed and missing in the cyclone.

    'Those who value the national well-being should go and vote "yes",' MRTV said in a scrolling headline."

The referendum, which the junta claims is a "road map to democracy," bans pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from ever holding public office and guarantees 25 percent of all parliamentary seats to the military.

Q&A: Is the country called Burma or Myanmar?

(Photo by Getty News)

Saturday May 10, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

Hezbollah: Crackdown is 'Declaration of War'

Ahh, Hassan Nasrallah is always good for a sound bite. Unfortunately, the Hezbollah leader heads up a force that is well-armed (rearmed in defiance of Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict, as several sources have confirmed to me) and seems to be itching for the next clash. Taking down the U.S.-backed Lebanese government of Fuad Saniora, pictured, is a long-held desire of Nasrallah, and that is apparently the direction he's going.

More:

    "Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned on Thursday that a Lebanese government crackdown on his group was tantamount to a 'declaration of war' as clashes escalated between supporters of rival political factions in the deeply divided country.

    Nasrallah issued his ominous statement on the second day of anti-government protests, with gunfights in several parts of the country, roads blocked and Lebanon's only international airport effectively shut down.

    'The decisions (of the government) are tantamount to a declaration of war and the start of a war... on behalf of the United States and Israel,' a defiant Nasrallah said at a rare press conference via video link.

    The Lebanese government on Tuesday launched a probe into a Hezbollah communication network and reassigned the head of airport security over his alleged links to Nasrallah's powerful Shiite militant group.

    'Our answer to this decision is this,' Nasrallah said. 'We have the right to confront he who starts a war with us by defending our rights and our weapons.' As the long-running political crisis threatened to spiral out of control, at least eight people were reported wounded in clashes pitting mainly Sunni Muslim supporters of the Western-backed government against Shiite followers of the Hezbollah-led opposition. The army command warned that 'if this situation continues, everyone will lose and this will affect the unity of the military.' And newspapers drew parallels with the lead-up to the devastating 1975-1990 civil war."

Egypt and Saudi Arabia have both blamed the Hezbollah-led opposition for escalating tensions, and Egypt reiterated its support for Saniora. Syria and Iran, of course, back Hezbollah.

Lebanon still lacks a president since Emile Lahoud left office in November.

(Photo by Cate Gillon/Getty Images)

Thursday May 8, 2008 | permalink | comments (0)

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