North Korea Missile Pointed Toward Hawaii?

The Yomiuri Shimbun ran a story today citing Japanese defense sources as saying North Korea's next long-range missile test will be pointed toward Hawaii and -- oh, that rascally Kim Jong-Il -- likely to launch on America's Independence Day or in the few-days window after July 4. The missile was reportedly brought to the launch site on May 30 from Pyongyang.

The Japanese newspaper explains the launch scenarios well:

"If it took the Okinawan path, when the first-stage booster detaches it could fall in the vicinity of a Chinese coastal area and might anger China.

In the case of the Guam path, the missile must overfly South Korea and Japan's Chugoku and Shikoku regions, which means the booster would be dumped onto a land area. Therefore, the ministry sees both possibilities as quite low, according to the sources.

In case of the Hawaii route, the booster could be dumped into the Sea of Japan. If such a long-range test launch was successful, North Korea would be able to pose a great military threat to the United States, which until now has not regarded North Korean missiles as a threat to North America or Hawaii. Therefore, the ministry concluded the Hawaii route is most probable of the three scenarios, the sources said.

However, while the distance from North Korea to the main islands of Hawaii is about 7,000 kilometers, an upgraded Taepodong-2 only has a range of 4,000 to 6,500 kilometers.

The ministry believes even if the missile took the most direct route over Aomori Prefecture, it would not reach the main Hawaiian Islands, the sources said."

This latest launch threat -- and the symbolic possible launch date -- are just a cog in the latest cycle of antagonism with North Korea. Yesterday, North Korea vowed "thousand-fold" military retaliation against the U.S. if provoked (which recalled the "9/11 times 2,356" threat of the puppet Kim Jong-Il in "Team America: World Police"). Today the U.S. has been tracking a North Korean vessel that could be carrying weapons or nuclear components, which would be not be in compliance with the Security Council resolution passed just days ago (at which the North already thumbed its nose). Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that missile defense is being beefed up for Hawaii.